Five Predictions for 2024: Summer McIntosh to Emerge as Stars of Paris Games
Amid the 35 gold-medal races in the pool at the Paris Olympics, the United States and Australia will battle for supremacy in the gold-medal count after Australia scored a big victory at the 2023 World Championships. We are not ready to predict a winner this year’s showdown, with plenty of data to come in from mid-season meets, the February World Championships in Doha and the various Olympic Trials meets to take place over the next six months. But when it comes to individual stars of the Games, we project Leon Marchand and Summer McIntosh to be the standouts.
Marchand is not exactly a bold prediction for the top spot. He was the world champion in both individual medley events the last two years, and he added a 200 butterfly title last year. He is expected to star at his home Olympics, and we project at least two gold medals and three medals overall, with a decision still to come as to whether he contests the 200 butterfly or 200 breaststroke.
On the women’s side, this could be the shining moment for McIntosh, who will compete in Paris weeks prior to her 18th birthday. McIntosh is the world-record holder in the 400 IM and a two-time world champion in both that event ant the 200 butterfly. She held the 400 free world record for a few months in 2023 before Ariarne Titmus retook the mark, and McIntosh also holds world junior marks in the 200 free and 200 IM. She did not swim the 200 IM at the 2023 Worlds because of scheduling conflicts, but the program lines up for her to take a shot at the short medley next year.
McIntosh could swim five individual events and race on all three of the Canadian women’s relays, putting her in position for a potential eight-medal performance in Paris. That might be a stretch, but six medals (four individual plus two relay) is very doable. Plenty of swimmers will be in the hunt for multiple individual golds, including Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan, Katie Ledecky, Kaylee McKeown and Kate Douglass, but McIntosh is best-positioned to emerge as the female star of the Games.
Here are a few other predictions for the Olympic year ahead:
A Swimmer Who Missed Fukuoka Will Win Gold
A long list of stars sat out last year’s global meet in Fukuoka, Japan, including Tokyo gold medalists Adam Peaty, Kristof Milak, Caeleb Dressel and Evgeny Rylov. All except Rylov are expected to make a serious run at the Paris Games. Meanwhile, Russian world-record holder Evgeniia Chikunova will be hoping a return to international racing works out in her favor this year, possibly as an individual neutral athlete, and we can’t rule out fellow Russian Kliment Kolesnikov finding his way to Paris.
Between those swimmers, expect at least one gold medal in an individual event, although we’re not sure who.
United States Wins At Least Three Relays
The U.S. won only two relays at the Tokyo Olympics, the men’s 400 freestyle relay and men’s 400 medley relay, while American squads missed the podium for the first time ever in an Olympic relay, with the men’s 800 free squad ending up fourth before the mixed 400 medley relay produced a disastrous fifth-place finish for the Americans. At last year’s World Championships in Fukuoka, the Americans won a medal in every relay but did not earn gold until sweeping the meet-ending women’s and men’s medley relays.
This time around, we’re predicting the Americans to go seven-for-seven in relay medals with at least three golds. Right now, the men’s 400 free relay and all three medley relays look like promising events for the Stars and Stripes.
Men’s Freestyle World Records: 400 Goes Down, 1500 Survives
A pair of long-lasting men’s freestyle world records came under fire in 2023. Sam Short and Ahmed Hafnaoui went head-to-head in a 400-meter race when the two men jumped to fourth and fifth, respectively, on the all-time list. One week later, Hafnaoui won an epic duel with American Bobby Finke in the 1500 free, with the men finishing just a half-second off Sun Yang’s world record.
For 2024, we’ll say that the 1500-meter final is actually slower than 2023, so no world record and no sub-14:30 performance, but Paul Biedermann’s 3:40.07, which has survived since the supersuit era of 2009, is in its final months.
Legendary Swimmers Sjostrom, Ledecky Claim Gold Again
A pair of future Hall-of-Famers get the job done again in Paris with individual gold medals. Neither one will be an upset. For Katie Ledecky, expect another round of domination in the women’s 1500 free and 800 free, with the 16-lap event making Ledecky the first female swimmer ever to win four consecutive Olympic gold medals in one event. The only man to do so was Michael Phelps in the 200 IM (2004 through 2016).
Meanwhile, Sarah Sjostrom has only captured one Olympic gold medal in her career, the 100 butterfly in 2016, and four Olympic medals overall, but in her fifth Games, expect Sjostrom to dominate the women’s splash-and-dash.
